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The Origami War
By Behnam Mohammadi
The U.S.–Islamic Republic war is trapped in paperwork. Tehran presented its wish list before a cease-fire. Trump called it “garbage” and did not finish reading. For now, the two sides are exchanging letters instead of missiles.
Welcome to the Kayhan Life Week in Review
As backroom negotiations continued between the United States and the Islamic Republic over hostilities, new actors entered the widening war theatre of the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain all became more visible in the conflict’s regional frame through covert strikes, drone interceptions, arrests, maritime incidents, and diplomatic maneuvering.
While Tehran maneuvered abroad, inside Iran, the Islamic Republic’s internet blackout caused the collapse of thousands of businesses, its repressive arm continued arrests, executions, and pressure on civil society.
►Thousands of businesses across Iran have shut down as the internet blackout imposed by the Islamic Republic after the Feb. 28 outbreak of war entered its 12th week. Many small businesses that once depended on Instagram, messaging apps, and online payments have been forced into street vending. Costly circumvention tools remain out of reach for millions.
Thousands of Businesses Shut Down In Iran Because of Internet Blackout
►The Islamic Republic also continued to use executions as part of its wartime security campaign. Rights groups warned of fabricated and forced confessions.
Iran Executes Man Accused of Spying for Israel, Mizan Reports
Iran Executes Man Convicted of Spying for CIA and Mossad
►There was rare relief as human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh was released on bail after her arrest during the wartime crackdown. Her release followed the transfer of Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi to a Tehran hospital after her sentence was suspended on heavy bail.
Iran Frees Prominent Rights Lawyer Sotoudeh on Bail, Reports Say
►An opinion piece by S.D. Jabbari argued that the West should abandon its ideological hesitation and more clearly support the Iranians’ struggle for democracy. The article framed the war over the Strait of Hormuz not only as an energy crisis but as a test of whether Western democracies would confront the Islamic Republic’s repression and support a transition based on secular democratic principles.
OPINION: The West Must Champion Iranians’ Struggle for Democracy
►The United Arab Emirates said its air defenses engaged missile and drone threats from Iran on May 8, shortly after Trump said the ceasefire remained in effect. This incident followed an exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz.
UAE Countering Iranian Air Attack After Trump Says Ceasefire Still In Effect
►Bahrain said it arrested 41 people it described as linked to Iran’s IRGC. Authorities said the cases included alleged sympathy with Iranian attacks, reflecting anxiety among Persian Gulf states about the Islamic Republic’s networks and influence during the conflict.
Bahrain Says It Has Arrested 41 People ‘Linked To Iran’s IRGC’
►Kuwait’s army said it intercepted several hostile drones over its airspace on May 10. This incident followed earlier drone activity, including attacks launched from Iraq against northern Kuwaiti border posts and a wave of Iranian drones targeting vital infrastructure in April.
Kuwait’s Army Says It Has Intercepted Hostile Drones Over Airspace
►The UAE said its air defenses dealt with two drones coming from Iran on May 10. Tehran denied carrying out recent operations against the UAE and warned of a “crushing response” if any actions were launched from Emirati territory against it.
UAE Says Air Defences Dealt With Two Drones Coming From Iran
►Kuwait said on May 12 it arrested four people affiliated with the IRGC who attempted to enter the country by sea. Kuwait later summoned the Islamic Republic’s ambassador and issued a protest note over what it described as an infiltration of Bubiyan Island, the largest island in Kuwait’s coastal chain in the northwest Persian Gulf.
Kuwait Says Four People Affiliated With Iran’s IRGC Arrested Trying to Enter by Sea
►Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia launched covert, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks inside the kingdom during the war. The strikes, reportedly conducted in late March, would mark the first known direct Saudi military action on Iranian soil.
EXCLUSIVE – Saudi Arabia Launched Covert Attacks on Iran as Regional War Widened, Sources Say
►Saudi fighter jets reportedly struck targets linked to powerful Tehran-backed Shi’ite militias in Iraq, while retaliatory strikes were launched from Kuwait into Iraq. The report pointed to a more extensive, partly hidden military response by the Persian Gulf states as the conflict expanded beyond Iran’s borders.
EXCLUSIVE – Saudi Warplanes Struck Militias in Iraq During War, Sources Say
►Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu secretly visited the United Arab Emirates during the war and met Emirati President Sheik Mohammed bin Zayed. The meeting signaled the diplomatic realignment taking shape around the widening conflict with Tehran.
Netanyahu Held Secret Meeting With Emirati President in the Uae During Iran War, PM’s Office Says
►Washington revised a proposed U.N. Security Council resolution demanding the Islamic Republic halt attacks and mining in the Strait of Hormuz. The revised draft removed language invoking Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, but diplomats still expected China and Russia to veto the measure.
US Revises UN Resolution On Iran But China, Russia Still Expected To Veto
►President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with the Islamic Republic was “on life support” after Tehran’s response to a U.S. proposal showed the two sides remained far apart. Tehran demanded an end to the war on all fronts, compensation for damage, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, and renewed oil sales.
Trump Says Iran Ceasefire Is ‘On Life Support’ as Hopes for a Deal Fade
►As Trump prepared to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, the U.S. Treasury targeted networks accused of supplying Iran with drone and missile components and sanctioned entities shipping Iranian oil to China. Washington views Beijing as a pivotal actor with economic leverage over Tehran, and China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, uses its partnership with the Islamic Republic as a strategic asset.
ANALYSIS – Trump Wants China’s Help on Iran. Beijing May Have Other Ideas
US Issues New Sanctions Over Iran’s Oil Shipments to China
US Imposes Sanctions On Companies It Accuses Of Aiding Iran’s Weapons Sector
►Britain sanctioned 12 individuals and entities linked to the Islamic Republic, citing hostile activity, including attack plots and financial operations.
UK Sanctions Iran-Linked Network, Cites Attack Plots and Finance Operations
►The U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network issued an alert to banks, identifying them as critical players in detecting IRGC-sanctions evasion tactics.
US Issues Alert to Banks on IRGC Efforts to Evade Sanctions
►The week ended with another maritime incident near the UAE. A vessel anchored northeast of Fujairah was boarded by unauthorized personnel and was heading toward Iranian territorial waters, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. Security sources said the vessel was believed to be the Honduras-flagged Hui Chuan fishery research vessel.
Vessel Seized off UAE’s Fujairah and Heading Toward Iranian Waters
►Satellite images showed a suspected oil spill near Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub. Analysts said it may be the largest spill seen since the start of the U.S.-Israel war against the Islamic Republic.
Suspected Oil Spill Seen On Satellite Images Near Iran’s Kharg Island Export Hub |
