The Islamic Republic of Iran plans to deport at least two million Afghans living in the country as part of a strategy to avoid an uprising following the Iran-Israel war in June, according to Yahya Qanie, a prominent Afghan peace builder and Middle East analyst.
“There are three reasons why the Islamic Republic is expelling Afghans from Iran,” Qanie told Kayhan Life. “The first reason is that the Iranian authorities have accused Afghans of engaging in espionage on behalf of Israel during Israel’s attack on Iran.”
“The second reason is that the Islamic Republic’s image was very badly damaged among its population when the attacks happened: it showed its vulnerabilities, and inability to defend itself and to protect its scientists, and they fear this could cause a backlash among the population,” he said.
“The third reason is that Iran is struggling with a water crisis and an economic crisis, but ironically it depends heavily on its Afghan population to do those hard labour jobs to prop up its economy,” Qanie added.
Returned and Reeling: Afghans Expelled from Iran Struggle to Start Over
Qanie is the author of several policy briefs and strategic recommendations which he has presented to the U.S. Congress, the U.S. Department of State and the European Union. He fled Afghanistan in August 2021 when the Taliban stormed Kabul, following an assassination attempt against him by the militia group.
He founded the United Nations Association of Afghanistan, campaigned for gender equality in Afghanistan and advocated for youth inclusion and the implementation of democratic values and principles in Afghanistan’s government.
The Taliban, which emerged in 1994, aim to make Afghanistan an Islamic State and previously ruled Afghanistan from 1996 until 2001. In August 2021, the fundamentalist group captured Kabul as coalition troops withdrew from the country.
The Taliban are currently viewed as the de-facto controlling party of the state. Human rights groups have condemned them for their ongoing human rights violations, particularly towards women and girls.
Afghanistan is the only country in the world to deny access to education for girls over the age of 12, and for women. At least 1.4 million Afghan girls have been deprived of schooling, according to UNESCO.
Prior to the Iran-Israel war, an estimated 6 million Afghans lived in Iran. However, in October 2024, Iran’s government announced a plan to deport 2 million Afghans who it claimed were undocumented.
Following the start of Iran’s 12-day war with Israel, the regime began to revoke valid residency documents and deport Afghans in unprecedented numbers.
An estimated 1.5 million Afghans have been deported from Iran since 2025, according to human rights bodies monitoring the situation. The claim by Iran’s government that those sent back to Afghanistan were illegal immigrants has been disputed by aid agencies who say the policy is a response to regime fears that Afghan nationals are spying for Israel, according to the Reuters news agency.
Surge in Afghans Driven from Iran in Spy Hunt After Israel Attacks
The Islamic Republic has targeted several communities and groups it suspects of spying for Israel.
It recently tried to acquire a ‘kill list’ held by the U.K. Ministry of Defense, which contained the identities of British spies, according to media reports. The list was leaked in a data breach and accessed by the Taliban, who hope to trade the list with the Islamic Republic in return for Tehran recognizing the group as the official rulers of Afghanistan, according to the news agency LBC.
In turn, Tehran hopes to use the list to capture alleged spies and help it negotiate with the West on its nuclear program, the article claimed.
The regime has so far arrested more than 2,000 individuals suspected of spying for Israel during the war, after Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad confirmed it infiltrated Iran months before its military attack on the country’s nuclear sites and its targeted assassinations of senior nuclear scientists and military personnel. During the month of August the regime said it arrested 20 alleged spies, and executed three men accused of spying for Israel.
“The regime wants to maintain the momentum of its oppressive regime and show force and authority because they cannot do anything else. So they harm the most vulnerable people, its Afghan population, for its public image: that the government is so powerful and strong it can do whatever it wants, which is not true,” Qanie said.
“Iranian officials are not giving people any time to gather their belongings. They are simply told they should leave everything behind,” Qanie said. “There are reports of Afghans being beaten at the border. Their property is confiscated by the Iranian authorities, and that makes the process even more difficult, because they come to the border with nothing, just their bodies. There are also reports of women giving birth to their children right on the border with no access to health care, which is inhumane and cruel.”
More than 256,000 Afghans returned from Iran through the Islam-Qala Border in June, with an average of up to 20,000 people returning per day. Children made up one quarter of those deported, including more than 5,000 unaccompanied and separated children, according to a July statement by UNICEF.
Those deported arrive in deeply vulnerable conditions, with few resources, limited access to shelter, food, water, health care, and protective services, the child welfare group added.
UNICEF also expressed concern over the fate of Afghans deported from Iran and Pakistan, in an Aug. 9 statement by Ted Chaiban, UNICEF’s deputy executive director for humanitarian action and supply operations.
“The families I met at the border indicated they looked forward to the future in their home country but were anxious about rebuilding their lives,” Chaiban said in the statement. “One common concern was the continuity of education for their daughters beyond grade 6, concerns echoed by the students I met in Kunduz.”
“UNICEF calls for a systemized and phased approach for the returnees, ensuring the safety, dignity and voluntariness of those on the move, as well as a continuity of care throughout their journey and measures to access continued protection in host countries, if needed,” Chaiban said.
