ANALYSIS: Reaching A Deal in Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks Will Be Tough


By Ahmad Rafat


On the anniversary of the death of Ruhollah Khomeini — the founder of the Islamic Republic — Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei firmly rejected the idea of halting uranium enrichment, a demand that United States President Donald Trump has made a prerequisite for any deal.

Pieces of shredded documents are scattered on a poster of Ayatollah Khomeini at the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, December 16, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky

Since the start of Trump’s second term in January, Iran and the U.S. have held five rounds of nuclear talks facilitated by Oman. However, the negotiations appear to have stalled over uranium enrichment in Iran.

The lack of progress stems from a key sticking point: the U.S. insists on a complete cessation of enrichment within Iran, while the Islamic Republic remains firm on its right to continue enriching uranium, though it is open to discussions about the level and volume of enrichment.

While Khamenei was delivering his speech, Ali Shamkhani, the Supreme Leader’s advisor, dismissed the U.S. proposal for a nuclear agreement as “non-technical and unprofessional” in an interview with Al-Mayadeen, a Lebanese pan-Arab satellite news channel based in Beirut.

He added that Iran is “formulating a new proposal” to present to Washington.

In his speech, Khamenei dismissed U.S. demands for a total halt to Iran’s nuclear enrichment, declaring: “The U.S. aims to eliminate Iran’s nuclear industry. Our message to America’s baseless demands is simple: They cannot do anything about it.”

Shamkhani echoed this sentiment. He said: “We will not permit the U.S. to succeed in its efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program or reduce uranium enrichment to zero.”

Some U.S. sources claim that a written proposal sent by Trump via Omani officials grants Iran temporary permission to carry out minimal uranium enrichment. According to these reports, Washington has suggested allowing enrichment at a 3 percent level and establishing a joint consortium with Middle Eastern nations.

Illustration by KL./

However, Trump has publicly stated on social media that the U.S. will not tolerate any form of enrichment.

These sources speculate that Trump’s comment could refer to the final phase of the agreement, rather than to a temporary arrangement.

In an interview with the Lebanese satellite TV channel Al-Manar, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remarked that the U.S. proposal is currently under review and will be addressed in due course, in alignment with Iran’s national interests.

“I believe the diplomatic window remains open,” he said, “and there is a genuine opportunity to reach a resolution through negotiations.”

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In the meantime, Russia, which has remained an unseen participant in the negotiations from the beginning, revealed its intention to join the discussions formally.

During a phone call with President Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed Russia’s willingness to take part in the nuclear talks with the Islamic Republic.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, said: “We maintain strong ties with Tehran, and naturally, President Putin has shown his willingness to leverage this cooperation to support and advance negotiations aimed at resolving Iran’s nuclear issue.”

Asked when Russia would join the talks, Peskov replied that discussions with Tehran and Washington were ongoing through various channels and added: “Whenever the need arises, we are prepared to step in officially.”

With little progress in the negotiations and both sides sticking firmly to their red lines, three outcomes appear most likely: continuing informal talks to reach a mutually acceptable agreement; working toward a temporary deal; or officially ending discussions, which could pave the way for military conflict.

It is important to note that, beyond Putin’s Russia, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also a key – and as yet unseen — player in these negotiations.

For any potential agreement between Tehran and Washington to succeed, it must also have Israel’s approval. Without it, even in the event of a deal backed by the White House, the Netanyahu government could act unilaterally — potentially even without Trump’s consent — to take military action against Iran.

Both Trump and Khamenei require an agreement that respects their respective red lines.

Yet given the current boundaries, reaching a long-term, final deal seems complicated. A temporary agreement might offer a way out, potentially setting the stage for more favorable conditions for a lasting resolution in the future.

One proposal that could work involves creating a regional consortium for uranium enrichment, where other regional players like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) participate in Iran but not in its existing nuclear facilities.

Instead, the enrichment could occur on one of the Persian Gulf islands, such as Kharg or Qeshm, under the oversight of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and U.S. inspectors.

This approach could be a mutually beneficial solution that both sides might find acceptable.

Tehran has drawn another red line in the negotiations: the complete removal of sanctions imposed by past and current U.S. administrations.

The Islamic Republic might agree to lifting sanctions imposed by the executive branch while temporarily tolerating the continuation of those imposed by Congress, as lifting congressional sanctions is a more complex process, and Israel’s powerful lobbying efforts in Washington could block such a move.

It is worth noting that many Republican lawmakers, especially those with neoconservative views, strongly oppose any agreement with the Islamic Republic, fearing it could empower Iran’s regime and grant it significant financial resources. Both the neo-Conservatives and Israel are particularly concerned that these funds could be used to strengthen Iran’s proxy forces.

Following Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israeli soil, Israel has made significant progress in weakening these forces. Yet the potential resurgence of Iran’s proxies in the region — especially Hezbollah in Lebanon — represents an even greater security threat to Israel than Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

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