By Ahmad Rafat
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorial regime has collapsed in the space of a little over a week. A coalition of anti-government forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – which is listed as a terrorist organization by many Western countries, Turkey and some Arab states – has arrived in Damascus, forcing Assad and his family to flee.
The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the victory of his opponents is a massive defeat for the Islamic Republic. It will significantly impact the Axis of Resistance, which is fundamental to Tehran’s regional strategy.
The flight of forces loyal to Assad and groups supported by the Islamic Republic — which consist of 61 different factions — facilitated the victory of the Syrian opposition forces.
The Islamic Republic was not alone in abandoning the Syrian dictator. Assad’s other ally, President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, merely carried out a few symbolic bombings of the city of Aleppo, but otherwise remained on the sidelines of the conflict.
It is important to note that Russia has withdrawn a significant number of its fighter jets from Syria due to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, leading to a marked decrease in its military presence in the region over recent years.
Until recently, the survival of the Assad regime was a priority for the Islamic Republic, officials of the Islamic Republic repeatedly described Syria as the regime’s “strategic depth.” Some Iranian figures even stated that “Syria is the 35th province of Iran,” indicating that protecting the country from attacks by forces opposing Assad’s regime took precedence over defending Khuzestan, an oil-rich region in southern Iran.
Yet the war that began after the October 7, 2023 terrorist attacks led by Hamas — as well as Tehran’s two attacks against Israel, and Israel’s massive response and destruction of the Ayatollahs’ anti-aircraft defense and missile systems — have decidedly weakened the Islamic Republic.
Retaining a presence in Syria and ensuring Assad’s continued leadership has been crucial for Hezbollah to restore its military strength. The group needs financial assistance and military supplies to maintain its operations and political influence in Lebanon.
Some Syrian analysts believe that behind the fall of the Assad regime is an unwritten pact between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey, President Joe Biden’s U.S. administration, and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israel – a pact aimed at expelling the Islamic Republic from Syria, and significantly deteriorating its “resistance front” in the region.
Over the years, the Islamic Republic has facilitated the movement of missiles, drones, and other military assets to Hezbollah through Damascus and Latakia airports, as well as via land routes along the Iraqi-Syrian border.
The loss of Syria for the Islamic Republic severely diminishes its frontline forces opposing Israel. Hostility towards Israel has been a cornerstone of the Islamic Republic’s regional policy since its inception. Hezbollah serves as the foundation of the “resistance front.”
Over the past year, this “resistance front” has been significantly curtailed, losing more than half of its military strength due to the setbacks faced by Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, the substantial weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and multiple attacks by the United States, Britain, and Israel against Ansar Allah in Yemen.
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Losing Syria further demonstrates that the Islamic Republic now lacks the potential to rebuild this front. It is also important to note that the Islamic Republic is facing a severe economic crisis that has diminished its capabilities across various domains.
Assad began over a year ago to distance himself from the Islamic Republic, trying to re-establish relations with the moderate Arab states of the Persian Gulf, with Europe, and indirectly also with the United States. This had been a matter of great concern to politicians in Tehran, who had tried to exert pressure on the Syrian president.
In the weeks leading up to Assad’s defeat, senior Islamic Republic officials visited Damascus, including Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, and Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Qods Force (IRGC-QF).
The comprehensive U.S. sanctions imposed on Syria, enacted by the U.S. Congress in 2019 under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019 (Caesar Act), are set to expire on Dec. 20 of this year.
For several months, the Assad regime was involved in informal discussions with the U.S., facilitated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE assured Assad that if he took substantial steps to distance himself from the Islamic Republic, there could be a possibility of avoiding the continuation of these sanctions.
On her visit to Lebanon in mid-October this year, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni engaged with Assad’s representatives in Beirut and committed to helping normalize relations between the European Union (EU) and Syria, contingent upon a significant reduction in ties with the Islamic Republic.
