By Ahmad Rafat
The Islamic Republic is currently facing a serious crisis following the collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The proxy groups aligned with the Islamic Republic, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, are no longer capable of conducting significant military operations to further the objectives of the Islamic Republic.
Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels in Yemen are experiencing intense assaults from Israel, the United States, and Britain, which have drastically restricted their operational capabilities. In addition, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), consisting of 67 predominantly Iran-backed Shia armed factions in Iraq, are caught up in internal turmoil — so much so that they have declared a cessation of missile and drone strikes against Israel.
This decision by these Iran-backed forces in Iraq is not unrelated to the downfall of Assad’s regime. Last month, prior to the collapse of the Syrian government, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani’s attempts to halt assaults by armed groups backed by the Islamic Republic against Israel were unsuccessful.
Facing pressure from the U.S., Prime Minister Al Sudani sought to shield his nation from Israeli retaliatory strikes by trying to prevent the proxy forces of the Islamic Republic from launching missiles. However, he could not secure an agreement from the PMF to cease their attacks on Israel until Tehran acknowledged that these proxy forces had significantly decreased in strength.
Syria’s New Foreign Minister Tells Iran Not to Spread Chaos in Syria
In a meeting with a group of Koranic reciters in Tehran on Dec. 22, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressed concerns raised by hardline elements of the Iranian regime over recent setbacks experienced by proxy forces. He effectively dismissed the notion of such forces, asserting that the Islamic Republic does not maintain any “proxy force” in the region, and labeling these assertions as mere “psychological warfare” propagated by adversaries.
Khamenei further characterized Israel’s military actions against groups like Hamas and Hezbollah as ineffective, stating that Israel has failed in its objectives of “destroying Hamas and Hezbollah.” He concluded confidently that “the honorable nations of the region will, by God’s grace, eradicate Israel.”
The primary audience for Khamenei’s statements was the small faction that still views this regime as legitimate in Iran and the broader region. He sought to persuade his supporters with a narrative contradicting common knowledge by rejecting the role of proxy forces in heavily defeated groups. He portrayed the Iranian regime as not being on the verge of collapse, and capable of overcoming its current crisis, a notion that increasingly diverges from reality.
The Islamic Republic had three tools at its disposal to pose threats to its neighbors and the West. The most prominent of these tools were the proxy forces, which Khamenei denied the existence of following recent Israeli military strikes.
Another significant tool are the Islamic Republic’s missile and drone programs, which have shown their limitations in effectively targeting Israel.
In two direct assaults by Iran on Israel, it became evident that the missiles, which Iran regards as a primary means of asserting power in the region and has repeatedly threatened to deploy against northern Mediterranean countries, lack sufficient quality and can be intercepted before reaching their intended target with advanced anti-missile defense systems.
In its recent military actions against the Islamic Republic, Israel has targeted and damaged portions of the nation’s missile facilities as well as its air defense systems, marking a significant setback that cannot be overlooked.
As a result, the sole means by which the Islamic Republic can still pose a threat to regional nations and the West is through its nuclear program. According to the most recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), this program has seen an unprecedented acceleration.
Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor, has expressed concerns that the Islamic Republic is making significant progress toward developing a nuclear weapon following the recent setbacks. He cautions about the implications of this development.
With Donald Trump returning to the White House in January, there is an increased likelihood of Israeli military operations targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, which could occur with the backing and support of Washington. This scenario may even lead to direct military action on the part of the U.S.
Recent comments from U.S. President Joe Biden’s national security advisor suggest that the Islamic Republic could make rapid and substantial progress toward developing a nuclear bomb. This reflects a growing apprehension among Western nations and regional countries.
Khamenei’s primary concern at this moment is not the potential for an attack by Israel and the U.S. on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Instead, the Leader of the Islamic Republic is focused on the internal reactions within the regime. Khamenei’s main worry is the disintegration of the regime’s hardline factions, who perceive the downfall of Assad’s regime as a signal of the impending collapse of the Islamic Republic itself.
The number of individuals within the regime questioning the effectiveness of the “Axis of Resistance” and Iran’s steadfast support for Assad is soaring. Over a decade of backing Assad has resulted in more than 7,000 casualties for the Islamic Republic, as noted by Saeed Ohadi, one of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s vice presidents.
ANALYSIS: Iran’s Foreign Policy Under Pezeshkian Is More of the Same
The financial backing provided to Assad’s regime, which collapsed in just 11 days, has come at a significant price. Syria currently owes the Islamic Republic more than $35 billion for oil and various forms of assistance. Given the recent change of regime in Syria, this debt is unlikely to be repaid to Iran. In addition to this $35 billion, one must consider military expenditures, arms purchases, and other unaccounted expenses incurred over the last decade.
Currently, numerous officials within the Iranian regime are questioning what has been accomplished at such a significant human and financial expense. They are particularly concerned about why Syria, which was expected to serve as the foundation of the “Resistance Front,” collapsed in just 11 days and failed to mount even a symbolic resistance against Assad’s adversaries.
Beyond these inquiries, which undoubtedly contribute to the internal weakening of the regime, the Leader of the Islamic Republic is apprehensive that the downfall of Assad’s regime and the swift deterioration of the military forces backing the Damascus dictator may create a new opportunity for the regime’s opponents within Iran.
While every country has distinct characteristics, Iran, unlike Syria, does not have a cohesive military opposition to its government. Increasing hopes of the possible overthrow of the Islamic Republic represent a serious threat to a regime whose legitimacy has significantly declined, as shown by recent election participation rates dropping below 20 percent.
Khamenei and other leaders in the government and military are aware of this warning signal; however, they lack any viable solutions to address it.
