By Roshanak Astaraki
Iran’s accelerating currency crisis has propelled the U.S. dollar exchange rate to more than 130,000 tomans, heightening fears of widespread social unrest across the country as households suffer.
In recent days, Iran’s currency and gold markets have experienced major tremors. By midday on Dec. 15, the U.S. dollar was trading at approximately 132,000 tomans. Meanwhile, gold coins fetched a record 143.4 million tomans. Together, these jumps highlight the rapid decline of the national currency and a deepening loss of public confidence in the economy.
Labor and pension experts argue that years of high inflation, combined with resistance to inflation-indexed wage increases, have steadily widened the gap between income and the cost of living. That gap now threatens not only the working poor but also the middle class—a group long seen as a stabilizing force and an engine of social and economic development.
Unlike in the past, when poverty was closely associated with unemployment, most of Iran’s poor are, in fact, currently employed. According to the Majles (Parliament) Research Center, 89 percent of households below the poverty line have at least one employed member.
According to official data, the dollar has risen by more than 100 percent since President Masoud Pezeshkian took office. That increase stands in stark contrast to campaign promises by Pezeshkian and his allies to rein in inflation, stabilize exchange rates, and shore up the rial.
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The slide continued even after the Central Bank announced a new “currency control package” on Dec. 14, outlining steps to manage supply and demand, reorganize trading mechanisms, tighten oversight, and curb speculative activity. Markets appeared unimpressed. On Monday, prices soared further, signaling deep skepticism about the government’s ability—or willingness—to intervene effectively.
For an import-dependent economy such as Iran’s, a weaker currency quickly translates into higher prices across the board. The loss of purchasing power is disproportionately affecting low-income and vulnerable households.
The government’s silence has drawn unusually blunt criticism from media outlets close to the establishment. The Tehran-based daily Kayhan noted that “the free-market exchange rate of the dollar has reached 130,000 tomans, and its impact has already been felt in people’s daily lives—long before it appears on the currency exchange boards.” The paper warned that there is a widespread perception among the public that policymakers have accepted the situation. “The silence signals that there is no ceiling,” Kayhan wrote, “and convinces the public that no one intends to stop this trajectory.”
The conservative daily Javan echoed those concerns, detailing how currency depreciation ripples through the entire economy. Even staple foods such as bread are affected, the paper noted, because production depends on imported machinery, energy, packaging, and transportation.
“An overnight jump in the dollar can halve the purchasing power of millions of workers and employees,” Javan wrote, describing the situation as “mismanagement, not sanctions.”
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Even if the government manages a temporary pullback, economists say the breach of the 130,000-toman-per-dollar mark has already delivered an inflationary shock to an economy where official inflation hovers near 50 percent—having risen 3.4 percentage points in just one month. Iran has endured inflation above 30 percent for more than five consecutive years, steadily hollowing out living standards and deepening what many describe as a full-blown livelihood crisis.
The effects are visible in everyday life. Meat, poultry, and fruit have disappeared from many household shopping baskets. Consumption of dairy and legumes has declined, while cheaper, calorie-intensive foods such as pasta increasingly replace vegetables and meat. Many retirees and salaried workers are covering basic expenses not through monthly income but by selling assets—gold, land, even cars—after cutting costs to the bare minimum.
Healthcare has become another flashpoint. Delayed treatments, untreated dental problems, and skipped medication are increasingly common, as out-of-pocket costs rise and insurance coverage falls short. Pensioners, who face higher health risks with age, are among the hardest hit.
Lower-income families have curtailed spending on education, leisure, travel, and even healthcare to afford food and rent. In some cases, financial strain has led children to leave school and enter the workforce. Official statistics indicate rising dropout rates at both the primary and secondary levels.
Economists also warn of a looming “demand famine”—not a shortage of goods, but a collapse in purchasing power so severe that consumers simply cannot buy foodstuffs. Hossein Imani Jajarmi, an urban sociologist at the University of Tehran, reports that the fall in the rial has reduced demand for food. “Sandwiches have become a luxury,” he said, placing the responsibility squarely on the government, which controls the Central Bank and the country’s leading economic institutions.
Analysts are now asking how much more strain Iranian society can withstand. With most households now living at or near the poverty line, public tolerance for additional inflation-driven shocks appears to be approaching breaking point. With most families struggling and on or near the poverty line, the appetite for further inflationary distress is at its peak. If current trends persist, many warn, the currency crisis could become the catalyst for a new wave of nationwide unrest—one driven not by ideology, but by the daily struggle to survive.
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