By Ahmad Rafat
The assault by Hamas on Israeli territory on Oct. 7, 2023, represented a significant event in the Middle East. Following this attack, Israel initiated military operations aimed at the Gaza Strip and subsequently targeted the Lebanese group Hezbollah, which placed the Islamic Republic of Iran in a precarious position.
Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic has primarily focused on opposing Israel. Over the past four decades, the Iranian leadership has relied on its proxies to engage in this conflict.
Hezbollah, created in 1982 after a meeting at Ali Akbar Mohtashamipur’s office — who was the Islamic Republic’s ambassador to Syria from 1982 to 1986 — was explicitly tasked with confronting Israel along its northern borders.
With Israel inflicting significant damage on both Hamas and Hezbollah over the past year, Iran has seen a weakening of its vital assets in the ongoing battle against Israel.
The Islamic Republic’s direct engagement in the conflict with Israel will result in considerable consequences for Iran. Accurately evaluating these repercussions is challenging until Israel initiates its attack and the extent of military operations becomes evident.
Nevertheless, several potential outcomes can be identified. The missile strike on Israel on Oct. 1 intensified internal rifts within the Islamic Republic. Some commanders within the IRGC expressed opposition to such a large-scale missile strike.
These commanders believed, with good reason, that Israel’s extensive retaliation could not only cause significant damage to Iran’s oil, nuclear, and military infrastructures, but also lead to economic and political consequences that might threaten the very survival of the regime.
It is important to note that the Islamic Republic cannot depend on the support of most of its citizens in its conflict with Israel. And if the conflict continues, the regime may have to face internal dissent, an eventuality that did not pose a significant threat to the Islamic Republic while its proxy forces were still fighting against Israel.
For many years, the Islamic Republic has aimed to consolidate various Islamist groups throughout the region under what it calls the Axis of Resistance. The main objective of this coalition is to weaken Israel and confront its allies, particularly the U.S.
The Axis of Resistance comprises Hezbollah, along with Palestinian organizations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Yemeni group Ansar Allah (often referred to as the Houthis), Iraqi factions that are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the Afghan Shia militia known as the Fatemiyoun Brigade, the Shia Pakistani militia called Zainabiyoun Brigade, and several smaller entities in Bahrain, Syria, and countries in the southern Persian Gulf and Africa.
Over the past four decades, the Islamic Republic has refrained from engaging in direct conflict with Israel. However, recent significant assaults by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon have changed this dynamic.
During these attacks, several notable political figures were killed, including Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine from Hezbollah, as well as Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar of Hamas.
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Additionally, a considerable number of military leaders from both Hamas and Hezbollah who were actively engaged in hostilities against Israel have also died.
These events have compelled the Islamic Republic to participate directly in combat with Israel, which has reduced Tehran’s ability to operate solely through its proxy groups.
On April 13 of this year, Iran executed its first direct missile and drone strike against Israel, representing a significant escalation in the conflict as it was carried out independently of its proxy forces. During this operation, around 250 missiles and drones were aimed at various sites within Israel.
In the wake of Israel’s military operations in Gaza, which led to the dismantling of Hamas’s operational capabilities and the removal of numerous key commanders, alongside significant damage to its military infrastructure, the Islamic Republic faced a notable decrease in one of its main methods for engaging in a proxy conflict with Israel.
As the situation escalated into Lebanon and several Hezbollah leaders were killed – in particular Hassan Nasrallah, the organization’s secretary general and a pivotal figure in the Axis of Resistance — the Islamic Republic launched 181 missiles at Israel on Oct. 1.
Some of these missiles successfully penetrated the Israeli defense system, resulting in damage. While the timing of Israel’s retaliation and the specific nature and extent of its military actions are unclear, one thing is certain: the diminishing presence of proxy forces along Israel’s borders.
The Islamic Republic can no longer depend on its proxy groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, to engage in military actions against Israel. If it intends to continue this conflict, it must take direct action.
Reports indicate that several commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been sent to Lebanon to oversee the deployment of missiles and drones that the Islamic Republic has supplied to that country over recent years through Syria, which is a crucial ally for Tehran’s regime, especially considering the substantial number of Hezbollah commanders who have been killed.
Recently deployed IRGC officers in Lebanon reportedly coordinated and directed the missile and drone attack launched from Lebanese territory on Oct. 19, even though Hezbollah claimed responsibility for these operations.
One missile specifically targeted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vacation home in Caesarea. The assault on the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem also served as a political statement and was intended as a warning from the Islamic Republic, showcasing its ability to execute strikes.
